Global Development and M&A Investment in the Paper Industry

This article will appear in the upcoming May/June issue of Paper360° magazine. It is being shared here as a special "sneak peek" for Ahead of the Curve readers. The global pulp and paper industry is entering a new phase of structural transformation. While overall growth remains steady, regional divergence is becoming more pronounced, product demand is shifting, and trade and regulatory pressures are reshaping traditional expansion paths. At the same time, mergers and acquisitions are increasingly serving as a strategic tool for companies seeking scale, resilience, and access to new markets.

 

This article examines key global development trends in the pulp and paper industry from 2009 through 2028, highlights the changing role of emerging economies, and explores how investment and M&A strategies—particularly among Chinese producers—are evolving in response to these dynamics.

 

Global Development Trends

 

From 2009 to 2028, the global pulp and paper industry has maintained steady growth and is expected to continue to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.3 percent.

However, from a regional perspective, this growth is far from uniform. Significant differences exist in both capacity scale and growth rates across regions (Fig. 1).

 

Asia-Pacific is the fastest-growing region globally. By 2028, capacity is expected to grow exponentially since 2009 levels. While growth is projected to moderate between 2025 and 2028 due to a slowdown in new investments, the region will continue to lead global expansion.

 

Latin America follows closely behind, with capacity expanding by around 100 percent from 2009 to 2025. The growth, especially recent growth, is driven primarily by large-scale pulp projects in Brazil, Argentina, and other countries. Although the Middle East has a relatively small capacity base, expansion led by equipment suppliers and service providers has driven a high CAGR of 8.0 percent, positioning the region as a new growth pole for the industry.

 

In contrast, North America and Europe are experiencing relatively stable growth. In these mature markets, the industry focus is shifting from “capacity expansion” toward “efficiency optimization.” The core reason for this regional imbalance lies in the rising demand for packaging and tissue driven by industrialization and urbanization in emerging economies, while developed markets are increasingly saturated and constrained by stricter environmental regulations governing new capacity.

 

BRICS as Main Driver of Capacity Growth

 

Emerging economies, represented by the BRICS countries, continue to increase their share of global paper capacity and have become the industry's core growth engine. In 2009, BRICS countries (excluding new members such as Indonesia and Iran, added in 2025) accounted for only 24 percent of global pulp capacity. By 2028, the BRICS share is expected to exceed 50 percent, with China, Brazil, and India remaining the primary contributors to global capacity growth.

 

China: Continued Growth, Surge in Exports

 

China remains the world’s largest paper-producing country. From 2022 to 2025, the industry recorded a CAGR of over seven percent, with particularly strong growth in folding boxboard and printing and writing grades. However, over the past two years, the number of new projects has declined sharply. Several projects announced in 2025 have been delayed or canceled, and industry-wide CAGR is expected to fall over the next year.

 

From a grade perspective, containerboard still has some growth potential, while market pulp expansion is increasingly concentrated in specialty pulp. Notable examples include specialty pulp projects developed by Huatai and Yunjing. Tissue continues to show steady growth, with new capacity announcements in 2026 to 2027.

 

The decline in new paper machine installations in China reflects the broader slowdown. New paper machines peaked at around 150 units in 2022, declined to 120 units in 2025, and are expected to fall further by 2027. This trajectory mirrors that of developed markets such as the United States and Germany, which reached peak capacity in the 1950s–1960s and subsequently entered a phase of “stock competition.”

 

In recent years, China’s exports of paper and paperboard have grown rapidly. In 2024, exports reached approximately nine million tons, accounting for nearly ten percent of global paper and paperboard trade. China surpassed the US to become the world’s second-largest exporter, behind Germany.

 

This rapid expansion has triggered increasingly aggressive trade countermeasures from major trading partners. The US imposed tariffs of 62.07-73.5 percent on Chinese paper shopping bags in July 2024 and a 267.63 percent tariff on paper plates in January, 2025. The EU imposed tariffs of 26.4-26.6 percent on Chinese decorative paper plates in August, 2025.

 

India imposed tariffs of US$152.27-221.36 per ton of FBB/SBS/LPB in September, 2025, despite China exporting only 170-200 thousand tons annually to India. Mexico, Brazil, Pakistan, and others have also launched anti-dumping and countervailing investigations, further intensifying trade friction.

 

Inevitable Path for Industry Development

 

In recent years, M&A activity in the global paper industry has remained robust, evolving from simple capacity consolidation to broader upstream and downstream integration. Several landmark transactions emerged in 2025:

 

• January: International Paper merged with DS Smith, creating a joint packaging paper company.
• March: India’s largest paper producer, ITC, acquired Century Pulp and Paper.
• June: PCA acquired two paper mills and eight packaging plants from Greif.
• July: Oji Holdings acquired AustroCel Hallein, extending upstream into pulp production.

           

Western paper companies focus on “geographic complementarity,” “scale coordination,” and “efficiency improvement,” often optimizing portfolios by shutting down inefficient capacity. However, their global influence is gradually declining, while Asian—especially Chinese—companies continue to expand capacity and gain market share.

 

Key M&A Strategies of Chinese Companies

 

Facing escalating trade barriers, tightening raw material constraints, and intensifying competition, Chinese paper companies have developed five major M&A strategies:

 

1. Localized production to offset trade barriers.
2. Forest-pulp-paper integration to secure cost and compliance advantages.
3. Overseas recycling fiber processing to address domestic supply constraints.
4. Deepening investment in Belt and Road and ASEAN markets.
5. Technology-driven and product-portfolio acquisitions and upgrades.

 

Specialty Paper: A Segment to Watch

 

As overcapacity intensifies in traditional paper grades, Chinese producers are increasingly shifting their focus toward specialty paper. In 2025, China accounted for about 30 percent of total specialty papers capacity. China has transitioned from a net importer in 2009 to a net exporter in 2025, with approximately six percent of domestic capacity requiring export markets.

 

The global specialty paper sector remains highly fragmented. While Chinese companies can often surpass overseas peers in scale, identifying suitable acquisition targets that align with corporate culture and generate long-term value remains a critical challenge.

 

Navigating Change in a Transforming Industry

 

As the global pulp and paper industry becomes more regionally diverse, trade-constrained, and strategically complex, data-driven investment decisions and well-executed M&A strategies are increasingly essential. Companies expanding overseas must navigate regulatory risk, supply chain integration, and market positioning with precision.

 

Amy Chu is a senior consultant at ResourceWise. ResourceWise provides data, analytics, and consulting services for a robust range of natural-resource-based commodity industries, including forest products, low-carbon feedstocks and fuels, and chemicals. Visit resourcewise.com.

 

This article examines key global development trends in the pulp and paper industry from 2009 through 2028, highlights the changing role of emerging economies, and explores how investment and M&A strategies—particularly among Chinese producers—are evolving in response to these dynamics.

 

Global Development Trends

 

From 2009 to 2028, the global pulp and paper industry has maintained steady growth and is expected to continue to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.3 percent.

However, from a regional perspective, this growth is far from uniform. Significant differences exist in both capacity scale and growth rates across regions (Fig. 1).

 

Asia-Pacific is the fastest-growing region globally. By 2028, capacity is expected to grow exponentially since 2009 levels. While growth is projected to moderate between 2025 and 2028 due to a slowdown in new investments, the region will continue to lead global expansion.

 

Latin America follows closely behind, with capacity expanding by around 100 percent from 2009 to 2025. The growth, especially recent growth, is driven primarily by large-scale pulp projects in Brazil, Argentina, and other countries. Although the Middle East has a relatively small capacity base, expansion led by equipment suppliers and service providers has driven a high CAGR of 8.0 percent, positioning the region as a new growth pole for the industry.

 

In contrast, North America and Europe are experiencing relatively stable growth. In these mature markets, the industry focus is shifting from “capacity expansion” toward “efficiency optimization.” The core reason for this regional imbalance lies in the rising demand for packaging and tissue driven by industrialization and urbanization in emerging economies, while developed markets are increasingly saturated and constrained by stricter environmental regulations governing new capacity.

 

BRICS as Main Driver of Capacity Growth

 

Emerging economies, represented by the BRICS countries, continue to increase their share of global paper capacity and have become the industry's core growth engine. In 2009, BRICS countries (excluding new members such as Indonesia and Iran, added in 2025) accounted for only 24 percent of global pulp capacity. By 2028, the BRICS share is expected to exceed 50 percent, with China, Brazil, and India remaining the primary contributors to global capacity growth.

 

China: Continued Growth, Surge in Exports

 

China remains the world’s largest paper-producing country. From 2022 to 2025, the industry recorded a CAGR of over seven percent, with particularly strong growth in folding boxboard and printing and writing grades. However, over the past two years, the number of new projects has declined sharply. Several projects announced in 2025 have been delayed or canceled, and industry-wide CAGR is expected to fall over the next year.

 

From a grade perspective, containerboard still has some growth potential, while market pulp expansion is increasingly concentrated in specialty pulp. Notable examples include specialty pulp projects developed by Huatai and Yunjing. Tissue continues to show steady growth, with new capacity announcements in 2026 to 2027.

 

The decline in new paper machine installations in China reflects the broader slowdown. New paper machines peaked at around 150 units in 2022, declined to 120 units in 2025, and are expected to fall further by 2027. This trajectory mirrors that of developed markets such as the United States and Germany, which reached peak capacity in the 1950s–1960s and subsequently entered a phase of “stock competition.”

 

In recent years, China’s exports of paper and paperboard have grown rapidly. In 2024, exports reached approximately nine million tons, accounting for nearly ten percent of global paper and paperboard trade. China surpassed the US to become the world’s second-largest exporter, behind Germany.

 

This rapid expansion has triggered increasingly aggressive trade countermeasures from major trading partners. The US imposed tariffs of 62.07-73.5 percent on Chinese paper shopping bags in July 2024 and a 267.63 percent tariff on paper plates in January, 2025. The EU imposed tariffs of 26.4-26.6 percent on Chinese decorative paper plates in August, 2025.

 

India imposed tariffs of US$152.27-221.36 per ton of FBB/SBS/LPB in September, 2025, despite China exporting only 170-200 thousand tons annually to India. Mexico, Brazil, Pakistan, and others have also launched anti-dumping and countervailing investigations, further intensifying trade friction.

 

Inevitable Path for Industry Development

 

In recent years, M&A activity in the global paper industry has remained robust, evolving from simple capacity consolidation to broader upstream and downstream integration. Several landmark transactions emerged in 2025:

 

• January: International Paper merged with DS Smith, creating a joint packaging paper company.
• March: India’s largest paper producer, ITC, acquired Century Pulp and Paper.
• June: PCA acquired two paper mills and eight packaging plants from Greif.
• July: Oji Holdings acquired AustroCel Hallein, extending upstream into pulp production.

           

Western paper companies focus on “geographic complementarity,” “scale coordination,” and “efficiency improvement,” often optimizing portfolios by shutting down inefficient capacity. However, their global influence is gradually declining, while Asian—especially Chinese—companies continue to expand capacity and gain market share.

 

Key M&A Strategies of Chinese Companies

 

Facing escalating trade barriers, tightening raw material constraints, and intensifying competition, Chinese paper companies have developed five major M&A strategies:

 

1. Localized production to offset trade barriers.
2. Forest-pulp-paper integration to secure cost and compliance advantages.
3. Overseas recycling fiber processing to address domestic supply constraints.
4. Deepening investment in Belt and Road and ASEAN markets.
5. Technology-driven and product-portfolio acquisitions and upgrades.

 

Specialty Paper: A Segment to Watch

 

As overcapacity intensifies in traditional paper grades, Chinese producers are increasingly shifting their focus toward specialty paper. In 2025, China accounted for about 30 percent of total specialty papers capacity. China has transitioned from a net importer in 2009 to a net exporter in 2025, with approximately six percent of domestic capacity requiring export markets.

 

The global specialty paper sector remains highly fragmented. While Chinese companies can often surpass overseas peers in scale, identifying suitable acquisition targets that align with corporate culture and generate long-term value remains a critical challenge.

 

Navigating Change in a Transforming Industry

 

As the global pulp and paper industry becomes more regionally diverse, trade-constrained, and strategically complex, data-driven investment decisions and well-executed M&A strategies are increasingly essential. Companies expanding overseas must navigate regulatory risk, supply chain integration, and market positioning with precision.

 

Amy Chu is a senior consultant at ResourceWise. ResourceWise provides data, analytics, and consulting services for a robust range of natural-resource-based commodity industries, including forest products, low-carbon feedstocks and fuels, and chemicals. Visit resourcewise.com.